We've been seeing a lot of requests and forum threads come in about the number in your stats for the people subscribed to your site. We had to make another change to that overnight which will affect your numbers back in the other direction and we wanted to make sure we clarified things as much as possible. If new threads are created on it here, please point them to this thread for the answer.
When the numbers went up:
We made a change to Subscriptions to count the number of people who subscribed to your site using just WordPress.com and not email. You didn't have these people in your subscribers list before, so now you have both more detailed stats and a higher number.
For some people, the number jumped WAY up and didn't match the CSV export you can pull from your subscribers. I'll explain why this is in just a minute.
When the numbers went back down (but not all the way):
Numbers for almost everyone would have gone back down today. The reason for this is that we discovered that your counts were including people who had clicked on the subscribe button but had not confirmed their email address in response to the "are you sure you want to subscribe" challenge email. That's why the numbers and the subscribers didn't match properly.
We keep counts on these people in the system so we know when they have verified their subscription. They're only added to your list (and are supposed to be added to your counts) when they agree to receive the subscription emails.
Sorry about the confusion! We wanted to make sure you could see the WordPress.com users who were looking at what you were writing, and ended up getting our math on the numbers wrong. Everything should be accurate now; if it's not, please send us a support request with the details and we'll take a look for you.
The blog I need help with is ryanmarkel.com.